VIEW: Flood disaster in Pakistan —Lal Khan

For decades, the Pakistani ruling classes have done nothing but pillage and plunder this land in their frantic greed and lust. During the present floods, the surging waters destroyed most of the bridges and other installations built after independence. Yet, astonishingly, most of the bridges and barrages built by the British stood firm and defied the onslaught of the floods

“The worst monsoon-related floods in recent memory” is how the UN has described the recent calamity in Pakistan. The mighty Indus River, once the cradle of one of history’s earliest civilisations, has devastated the land to which it gave birth. The irresistible force of the floods has washed away some of the ancient ruins that had stood there for thousands of years.

But far more tragic is the terrible loss of human life. More than 20 million people — nearly 12 percent of the entire population — are suffering. More than 160,000 square kilometres, or 20 percent of Pakistan’s landmass, are inundated. A million homes have been destroyed or damaged. Of the 50 million acres of cultivable land, more than 10 million acres (about 20 percent) of standing crops, mainly cotton and sugarcane, have been destroyed or severely damaged.

Such immense natural catastrophes cruelly expose all the faults, deficiencies, and inner rottenness of existing society and the state. We saw this very clearly in the earthquake that shattered this unhappy country only five years ago. And we see it again now on a vastly greater scale. What we are witnessing is the hopeless inability of a corrupt and degenerate social system to deal with the real problems faced by the people.

The aid effort has also exposed the hypocrisy of the imperialists. When it comes to spending billions of dollars on drones, bombs and bullets, their generosity has no bounds. But when it comes to providing bread, clothing and shelter for millions of starving and homeless people, their generosity suddenly ends.

Floods are not a new phenomenon in Pakistan. There have been 50 floods in the last 28 years. In each of these calamities, those whose lives were devastated never recovered to the state where they were before the disaster. Those who suffer are always the same people. They are not the well-heeled politicians, generals, bankers and journalists in Islamabad, but the poor and oppressed working masses of Pakistan.

It has been the common practice of the rulers and the reactionary Islamic fundamentalists to attribute these disasters and natural calamities to ‘acts of God’ and the ‘wrath of Allah’. This is a convenient myth, designed to deflect the anger of the masses away from the rich and powerful, who rule the state and control the nation’s finances. This obscurantist nonsense is in fact adding insult to injury for these traumatised and impoverished millions.

For decades, the Pakistani ruling classes have done nothing but pillage and plunder this land in their frantic greed and lust. It is a scandalous fact that the major barrages, headworks and the network of canals and irrigation channels in Pakistan were built under the British Raj. During the present floods, the surging waters destroyed most of the bridges and other installations built after independence. Yet, astonishingly, most of the bridges and barrages built by the British stood firm and defied the onslaught of the floods.

Apart from global warming, the two main factors for this unmitigated disaster were the inadequate and fragile infrastructure and drastic deforestation (forests have reduced from 28 percent of Pakistan’s landmass in 1947 to 2.3 percent today). Both these are equally the result of the greed of the capitalists and landlords for profit and the unbridled play of market forces.

The full extent of the catastrophe is yet unknown. When the land eventually dries out, the real destruction to houses, crops, infrastructure, livestock and human life will be unveiled. Famine, hunger, disease and even starvation are hanging over the heads of millions. There have already been outbreaks of looting and violence as the desperate victims scramble for survival. Even in the best scenario, there will be a prolonged disruption of normal activities across the country.

The total losses could exceed 8-10 percent of the nation’s GDP. Under these circumstances, there may be no growth at all or there may even be a contraction in the overall economy.

The economy could contract by more than one percent. Exports could plunge by $ 4-5 billion causing the trade deficit to balloon. There would be a sharp depreciation of the rupee, which could fall to more than 100 rupees to a dollar. Capital flight may well ensue as happened in 2008, when the rich transferred abroad about $ 3 billion in less than six months. The shortfall in the tax revenues and the rise in flood-related expenses will cause a fiscal deficit of more then seven percent. To stave off a severe balance of payments crisis, another huge sum of more than $ 10 billion would be needed.

The army’s internal cohesion has been undermined due to the deep divisions on the question of the US war on terror, on support for the Taliban, on the Kashmir policy, on the so-called policy of strategic depth in Afghanistan and, last but by no means least, on its own existence with lavish state funding for its armaments and perks for the top brass.

In this crumbling economy, the generals would prefer the advantages of prompting from the wings rather than to rule at the helm. Also for the time being the Americans prefer to continue with the controversial Zardari.

In an extreme situation, a military takeover is not ruled out. But a dictatorship in these times would be extremely weak and unstable. Its fall would be imminent the moment the masses entered into the arena of struggle. The fate of a right wing civilian regime, if it came to power, would not be very different. Islamic fundamentalists have lost whatever little social base they had after the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. The rampant Islamist terrorism in Pakistan has been a severe setback for these forces of black reaction.

Some of the nationalists of different kinds in Pakistan have sold out to the Americans and reduced themselves to a mere ploy of imperialism and the wealthy and privileged elites of those nationalities.

Yet the masses cannot go on tolerating such a social and economic avalanche for long without provoking a social explosion. These floods that have caused such havoc have also been instrumental in exposing the extreme class oppression and exploitation and the rottenness of the regime before the eyes of the masses. The Economist of August 21, 2010 writes:

“Comparisons are drawn to the devastating cyclone in the then East Pakistan in 1970, when the government’s botched response was a factor behind the war that led to Bangladesh’s independence the following year.”

The comparison is instructive, but The Economist forgets to mention one thing. Before the war, there was an uprising on classic socialist lines in Pakistan. Due to the lack of a Leninist party and a Marxist leadership, the class struggle was diverted onto nationalist lines and the Pakistan Army was defeated by the movement of Bengali national liberation. However, the emergence of Bangladesh did not abolish capitalism, feudalism and the imperialist stranglehold.

The situation in Pakistan today is completely different. If a movement of such epic proportions, as was witnessed from 1968 to 1971, erupts, the course of history could be transformed. The working masses are beginning to draw revolutionary conclusions from the injustice they are suffering and prepare themselves to play their part in the stormy events that are being prepared.